This is unrelated to your post but I couldn’t see contact details so I hope it’s OK to raise it here. Any idea what’s up with the Cryosphere Today sea ice extent gadget? I’ve been watching the Arctic sea ice extent nudge ever closer to the 1979-2000 average. A few days ago it reached an anomaly figure of -0.173 million sq. kms. and seemed destined to hit the long term average. However, it’s now been stuck on that figure for several days. It may be that the sea ice extent hasn’t changed in that time (unlikely) or it could be that CT has stopped reporting the situation whilst waiting for the start of the melt season when the anomaly will start to increase again, doing away with the need to report that the average was breached.

Regards,
Bruce

I am sorry the point of the post went over your head.

1. I edited the post to account for my error. Perhaps you didn’t get that far down before commenting.

2. Look at the graph again. What is the last full year of data on it? I will give you a clue, it is not 2011. So in terms of available data from the MET within that range of graphs available to the public it is “missing”. I agree the UK average is upheld by Scotland, and you and anyone else can go to the MET site and look at all the data you want – this is a blog post, which funnily enough encourages you to open your mind by looking at the data yourself. Did you? No of course you didn’t.

3. The “most of 2011″ statement relates to the linked too document, of which the graph is only one part. The precedent, where it has been actually stated in news broadcasts is 13%, but that actually relates only to a small part of Eastern England. My point is that most of England had 50-70% of its average rainfall for the majority of 2011. As I then point out, you can look at the linked too pdf to see that the water levels are not quite as low as the BBC and others lead us to believe in their reporting.

4. “Maybe you’ve got a point about the water storage levels”. Actually that was the point of the post. Glad you got there in the end.

Calling an average a trend line was only the start. You also said the rainfall graph only had data up to 2010, despite the fact that the latest data point is very clearly 2011. Perhaps it would suit you better to look at the 2011 figure – it’s actually relatively high, if only because Scotland more than compensated for dryness in England.

Then you give a map for 2011. Depite several BBC reports talking about two very dry winters, you tell us about “most of 2011″ using data for March to September. Then you tell us that 50-70% must be different to “unprecedented low rainfall”, without any indication of what precedent there is. (Obviously there would be more precedents for such figures in a March-September period than for a whole year, and even few for consecutive years.)

Maybe you’ve got a point about the water storage levels – the “drought” being talked about isn’t just weather but things including demand and how the systems have been managed. Nothing simple on the news can possibly be telling the full story. As a separate matter, though, I’d be really interested in hearing what contractual agreements make it good for water company shareholders to overplay droughts. It doesn’t seem to work like that in other parts of the world.

- Their script says : “this record rainfall makes no difference to the ‘drought’ since the watertable needs to catchup from 2 years of lower than normal rainfall, this rain just evaporates as the ground is too hard to aborb it, what counts is autumn & early winter rain.” All that is complete BS & can be taken apart bit by bit; for a start the temperature is much lower than normal & it rains at night so that water won’t be evaporating…. So what are they on about ? : AHA I WORKED IT OUT on Tuesday evening on Radio 4 the reporter said !”Here I am at the River Pang , in Berkshire & as we can see it’s still dried up the drought is nowhere near ending. Then I did some background checking … I found that isn’t a typical river …
http://hampsteadnorreys.org.uk/Environment/RiverPang.html for it all those special conditions the media churn-out apply to it. It’s says stuff like “The River Pang is a chalk stream that starts north of the village, the exact starting … are mainly replenished by rain that falls during the Autumn and early Winter”

- It also says this “From time to time, residents of Hampstead Norreys express their concern about the River Pang and its uncertain flow pattern, often drying up in the Autumn, sometimes returning early the following year but occasionally staying dry for a year or more. All of this is perfectly natural and no longer seriously affected by extraction.”

- actually http://www.oxfordshiregt.org/chalk_facts/Chalk%20links%20and%20groundwater%5B1%5D.pdf an academic paper says Spring rain does make a difference
“The water table varies in height throughout the year,
falling during the summer and autumn months and
recovering (due to recharge by rainfall) during the winter
and spring months, with the largest seasonal variations
observed away from the rivers. In a well at Rockley in
Wiltshire, the water table varies annually from 2 to 18
metres below the surface.” .. Look at that truely massive variation during even normal years

.. BTW Yes it’s easy to show the River Pang dry as it’s a very shallow river it’s only 20cm deep normally & 35cm is considered a flood http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/riverlevels/136495.aspx?stationId=7105 environments Agencies own graphs for River Pang. River Pang has been Thames Water’s special project for years as it keeps flooding & damaging property… so they have probably been taking steps to keep it low.

We’re not seeing drought but political spin – shame about the inconvenient data. Where I live the local paper has made much of the “drought”, and indeed February and March had less rain than I recall is usual. About 4 weeks ago I saw a cross-section of soil down to about 2 metres in a freshly dug pipeline trench. It was dark and moist all the way down from the surface. Spinners omit to mention there’s far less evaporation in winter months.

All the best,
Andy the sceptical maths teacher